Tell us a bit about Ascend Analytics and what prompted you to join CEBA? 

Ascend Analytics is the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the energy transition. The company’s offerings enable decision-makers in power development and supply procurement to maximize the value of planning, operating, and managing risk for renewable, storage, and other assets. 

Ascend Analytics unlocks new financial value for corporate customers. Our mission to provide the actionable intelligence to advance the energy transition directly applies to CEBA members in need of procuring reliable and cost-effective clean energy. 

How is Ascend helping to bring forward the future of clean energy? 

Driven by our expertise in powering renewable generation and storage build-out with analytics, we run automated and highly competitive clean energy procurement processes, totaling more than the U.S. data center load each year. Ascend’s advanced modeling expertise evaluates the true economics of the project’s energy and emissions, quantifying the risks and values to ensure customers acquire the most reliable and cost-effective clean energy supply for carbon emissions goals. 

What is the largest hurdle to clean energy adoption? 

A continuing challenge in successfully procuring clean energy is the predictability of market conditions. With the grid undergoing the largest transformation since its establishment 120 years ago, transitioning to clean energy must occur in a way that prioritizes safety, reliability, and affordability, all while accounting for new dynamics and volatility. With renewable penetration continuing to grow, weather will increasingly become the underlying driver for demand, supply, and price formation. 

What does this then mean for the cost of renewable supply? Renewable generation will drive price extremes: low production during the highest highs and surplus generation during the lowest lows. Renewables will displace higher cost thermal generation, driving prices lower over time. Successfully accounting for these changes depends on predicting market conditions. Market tools that help companies make intelligent decisions from day one — and factor in economic and non-economic market dynamics — will prove crucial to obtain financial and environmental returns. 

Envision a 90% carbon-free U.S. electricity system by 2030 — what are the next steps toward a carbon-free energy future? 

A 90% carbon-free system requires new math for new energy to predict and plan for volatility. At Ascend, we call this new approach our Opportunity Cost Forecasting Framework, which encompasses a broader set of structural drivers of price, including weather variability and bidding behavior. The industry used to make investments and energy forecasts based on history and power production cost modeling. With weather as the new fuel, the value of renewable production becomes less predictable, and market prices turn more volatile. New factors of power supply, such as cost of land, IRA bonus zones, electrification, and opportunity cost bidding serve as the principal drivers of power prices and long-run equilibrium. 

Ascend also forecasts carbon emissions to maximize both revenue and carbon abatement. We view hourly Locational Marginal Emissions (LME) forecasting as a necessary progression in carbon accounting. It represents a significant value differentiation for renewables and storage resources compared to the current annual emissions criteria. The irreversible commitment of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) creates significant exposure to changing power prices and emission values that Ascend’s valuation approach uncovers, limiting the buyer’s future regret. PPAs that use hourly nodal emissions forecasts provide a more accurate basis to assess value and make long term commitments to meet future 24/7 clean goals.

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