Study shows repealing tech-neutral tax credits would raise energy prices,
 reduce jobs, and slow economic growth across 19 states

The Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) today released a study by NERA Economic Consulting titled Economic Impacts of Repealing Technology-Neutral Tax Credits that highlights adverse and significant economic impacts that would occur if federal technology-neutral energy tax credits are repealed. The study found that repealing the federal investment (§48E) and the production tax credits (§45Y) would raise electricity and natural gas prices, lead to job losses and economic slowdown, and lower household incomes across 19 states between 2026 and 2032.

“If these tax credits disappear, American households and businesses in both red and blue states would experience economic harm,” said CEBA CEO Rich Powell. “This is not a partisan issue. Americans voted to combat the cost-of-living crisis in the 2024 election. Now is the time for Congress to incentivize private investment in more sources of low-cost, reliable energy that fuels economic growth and jobs, helps the United States secure energy dominance and independence, and decreases energy costs nationwide.”

The NERA study found that if the federal tax credits were repealed:

• Arizona would see drastic electricity rate increases of 12.7% for households and 17% for businesses, along with 6,700 lost jobs.

• North Carolina would see a 13% increase in electricity prices for households and a 20.3% increase in electricity prices for businesses. The state would also experience almost 3,000 jobs lost.

• South Carolina would experience 4,860 jobs lost and electricity prices increasing by 11.5% for households and 17.1% for businesses.

• Kansas would experience 5,250 lost jobs and electricity price increases of 14.3% for households and 16.7% for businesses.

• Ohio would experience 5,890 lost jobs and electricity price increases of 6.3% for households and 9.5% increase for businesses.

Following an earlier study NERA published in February, this new study details the adverse economic impacts of repealing the technology-neutral energy credits and how in the absence of other available technologies, gas generation would try to fill the gap and ultimately result in constrained generation availability and higher economy-wide energy costs.

These elevated electricity and natural gas prices would create economic stress that slows power sector growth, dampening new investment and further constraining energy supply:

• Households would be hit on multiple fronts: rising utility bills, job losses, and falling incomes would constrain consumer spending and overall economic resilience.

• Demand for labor and capital would fall, leading to wage losses, declining household incomes, and shrinking investments.

• The combined effect would be destabilizing, with state-level gross domestic product (GDP) declines, intensified household financial strain, contraction of key industries, and job losses. The scale and severity of these impacts would vary by state but are significant and far-reaching.

State-Specific Findings
According to the Economic Impacts of Repealing Technology-Neutral Tax Credits study, if the tax credits are repealed, 19 states would see higher energy prices, fewer jobs, GDP loss, and lower household income on average by 2032:

Arizona:
6,700 fewer jobs
$340 average loss in annual household income
12.7% increase in electricity prices for households
17.0% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.2% increase in natural gas prices for households
4.7% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$930 million decrease in state GDP
 
California:
44,200 fewer jobs
$350 average loss in annual household income
7.2% increase in electricity prices for households
8.5% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.3% increase in natural gas prices for households
3.5% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$4.78 billion decrease in state GDP
 
Colorado:
1,950 fewer jobs
$190 average loss in annual household income
4.7% increase in electricity prices for households
5.6% increase in electricity prices for businesses
3.5% increase in natural gas prices for households
4.6% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$170 million decrease in state GDP
 
Iowa:
5,000 fewer jobs
$370 average loss in annual household income
5.3% increase in electricity prices for households
6.3% increase in electricity prices for businesses
3.7% increase in natural gas prices for households
5.4% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$590 million decrease in state GDP
 
Kansas:
5,250 fewer jobs
$420 average loss in annual household income
14.3% increase in electricity prices for households
16.7% increase in electricity prices for businesses
3% increase in natural gas prices for households
5.5% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$600 million decrease in state GDP
 
Maine:
750 fewer jobs
$110 average loss in annual household income
20.0% increase in electricity prices for households
19.3% increase in electricity prices for businesses
3.7% increase in natural gas prices for households
5.4% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$60 million decrease in state GDP
 
North Carolina:
2,790 fewer jobs
$240 average loss in annual household income
13% increase in electricity prices for households
20.3% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.5% increase in natural gas prices for households
4.4% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$640 million decrease in state GDP
 
Nebraska:
4,180 fewer jobs
$374 average loss in annual household income
15.5% increase in electricity prices for households
18.1% increase in electricity prices for businesses
3.4% increase in natural gas prices for households
5.3% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$430 million decrease in state GDP
 
Nevada:
2,090 fewer jobs
$270 average loss in annual household income
7.3% increase in electricity prices for households
10.1% increase in electricity prices for businesses
3% increase in natural gas prices for households
4.4% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$320 million decrease in state GDP
 
New Hampshire:
1,980 fewer jobs
$250 average loss in annual household income
3.5% increase in electricity prices for households
3.6% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2% increase in natural gas prices for households
2.9% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$160 million decrease in state GDP
 
New Jersey:
22,180 fewer jobs
$1,040 average loss in annual household income
13.3% increase in electricity prices for households
18.1% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.9% increase in natural gas prices for households
3.3% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$3.24 billion decrease in state GDP
 
New York:
20,300 fewer jobs
$650 average loss in annual household income
6.5% increase in electricity prices for households
7.9% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.3% increase in natural gas prices for households
3.8% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$3.45 billion decrease in state GDP
 
Ohio:
5,890 fewer jobs
$80 average loss in annual household income
6.3% increase in electricity prices for households
9.5% increase in electricity prices for businesses
3.1% increase in natural gas prices for households
4.5% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$1.83 billion decrease in state GDP
 
Oregon:
1,910 fewer jobs
$230 average loss in annual household income
4% increase in electricity prices for households
5.2% increase in electricity prices for businesses
3.2% increase in natural gas prices for households
5.1% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$250 million decrease in state GDP
 
Pennsylvania:
6,680 fewer jobs
$30 average loss in annual household income
6.3% increase in electricity prices for households
10% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.6% increase in natural gas prices for households
3.3% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$740 million decrease in state GDP
 
Rhode Island:
1,860 fewer jobs
$430 average loss in annual household income
8% increase in electricity prices for households
10.4% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.1% increase in natural gas prices for households
2.8% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$210 million decrease in state GDP
 
South Carolina:
4,860 fewer jobs
$370 average loss in annual household income
11.5% increase in electricity prices for households
17.1% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.4% increase in natural gas prices for households
5.2% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$620 million decrease in state GDP
 
Virginia:
4,280 fewer jobs
$350 average loss in annual household income
8% increase in electricity prices for households
11.8% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.3% increase in natural gas prices for households
4.1% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$1.34 billion decrease in state GDP
 
Vermont:
820 fewer jobs
$290 average loss in annual household income
7.7% increase in electricity prices for households
9.4% increase in electricity prices for businesses
2.3% increase in natural gas prices for households
4.1% increase in natural gas prices for businesses
$80 million decrease in state GDP